Abstract Detail

Biogeography

Park, Daniel [1], Davis, Charles [2].

Invasions and migrations: A comprehensive evaluation of the implications of climate change on the native and introduced ranges of Asteraceae species.

The question of how plant species and communities respond to climate change has emerged a central problem across biogeography, ecology and conservation biology. Studies have shown that several native plant species’ range and abundance are likely to decrease in the future. Others have hypothesized that biological invasions may become more extensive with climate change. However, few have considered whether these changes in distribution are achievable within the relatively short timeframes considered. Also, such studies often focus on certain parts of either species native or invaded ranges, leading to a lack of comprehensive information on what is likely to happen across species’ entire distributions. Here, we model the present and future (2050, 2070) distributions of over a thousand species in the sunflower family, Asteraceae, and examine changes in habitat suitability across their entire ranges at multiple geographic scales. First we compare predicted increases and decreases in habitat between species’ native and invaded ranges under multiple scenarios of climate change. Second, we quantify the movement and dispersion of suitable habitats in species native ranges in the near future. Third, we examine the degree of climatic niche shift required by species to retain their current distributions in the face of an increasingly changing climate. We find that a significant proportion of species are predicted to lose suitable habitats in their native range while gaining them in their invaded range. Suitable climatic conditions were predicted to increase overall for the majority of species. However, we demonstrate that habitats with favorable climatic conditions will shift over 1000 km, and also become more fragmented across species ranges. Furthermore, we find that while the amount of niche shift required for species to maintain their current ranges is relatively small, it is beyond what these species have exhibited over the last two centuries. Finally, we demonstrate that even species with large current geographic ranges do not necessarily possess the niche breadth or adaptability necessary to adjust to changes in climate. Together, our results provide an unprecedentedly comprehensive view of future plant biodiversity change, and illustrate the need to consider invasive populations, dispersal capabilities, and adaptive ability in conservation efforts.

1 - Harvard University, Harvard University Herbaria, 22 Divinity Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
2 - Harvard University, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology / Harvard University Herbaria, 22 Divinity Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA

Keywords:
Asteraceae
climate change
ecological niche modeling
dispersal
niche shift
species distribution modeling
invasive species.

Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Session: 13, Biogeography
Location: Sundance 3/Omni Hotel
Date: Monday, June 26th, 2017
Time: 4:15 PM
Number: 13010
Abstract ID:467
Candidate for Awards:None